21st Century Global and Regional Surface Temperature Projections

迄今为止，人类活动已经使地球增温1.1°C。科学界早在20 年前提出了临界点的概念，指的是在全球平均气温超过临界点时可能会引发更大的，突然的、不可逆转的变化，并会导致级联效应。有的科学家认为平均温度升高1.5°C 至 2°C 可能会达到临界点。我们一项最新研究预计这一临界点可能会今后30至50年内到达。

这篇发表在《地球与空间》文章的第一作者Nicole Ma是Sage Hill School 11年级的高中生。https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2022EA002662

这项研究不仅对于确定地球的未来和我们在其中的位置至关重要，而且将为制定国家和全球范围内的环境保护政策提供信息。

As of today, human activities have warmed our planet by 1.1°C. 20 years ago, the scientific community introduced the concept of a “tipping point.” When the global average temperature surpasses the tipping point, the climate system will undergo large, sudden, and irreversible changes that beget cascading effects. Some scientists believe that an average temperature rise of 1.5°C to 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures indicates a tipping point. A new study of ours predicts that this tipping point may be reached within the next 30 to 50 years.

Nicole Ma, lead author of the article published in Earth and Space, is a Grade 11 high school student at Sage Hill School. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2022EA002662

This research is not only critical to determining the future of the planet and our place in it, but will also inform the development of environmental protection policies on a national and global scale.